August 2024

Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 28 aug 2024

According to Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) August Monetary Policy India's growth forecast for April-June quarter is reduced by 20 bps to 7.1% on account of muted government capex, lower corporate profitability and lower core output. Economy experts suggest India's expected to slow down to a five quarter low of 6.5% in the Q1FY25. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director and Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings & Research, says, 'The general momentum of domestic economic activity has witnessed some moderation in the first quarter of the fiscal, with some high frequency indicators indicating an adverse impact of the general elections along with the excessive summer heat conditions in some sectors of the economy. Lower growth in industrial output along with lower than expected profitability may translate to weaker GVA growth in the manufacturing sector.' Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head-Research & Outreach at ICRA, says, 'For the full-year FY2025, ICRA expects a back-ended pick-up in economic activity to boost the GDP and GVA growth to 6.8% and 6.5%, respectively. In particular, there is considerable headroom for the GoI’s capital expenditure, which needs to expand by 39% in YoY terms in July-March FY2025 to meet the Budget Estimate for the full year. This is expected to catapult GDP growth back above 7% in H2 FY2025.' Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor at State Bank of India, 'The global economic growth outlook remains uncertain but the softening inflation has made space for monetary policy easing. The indicators of corporate performance in Q1 2024-25 point to moderation in sales growth of manufacturing companies in both nominal and real terms, although excluding the petroleum sector, a better outturn emerges.' . Read on...

Livemint: India's GDP growth estimated at a five-quarter low of 6.5% in Q1FY25: Economists
Author: Ankit Gohel

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Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 27 aug 2024

According to Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) August Monetary Policy India's growth forecast for April-June quarter is reduced by 20 bps to 7.1% on account of muted government capex, lower corporate profitability and lower core output. Economy experts suggest India's expected to slow down to a five quarter low of 6.5% in the Q1FY25. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director and Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings & Research, says, 'The general momentum of domestic economic activity has witnessed some moderation in the first quarter of the fiscal, with some high frequency indicators indicating an adverse impact of the general elections along with the excessive summer heat conditions in some sectors of the economy. Lower growth in industrial output along with lower than expected profitability may translate to weaker GVA growth in the manufacturing sector.' Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head-Research & Outreach at ICRA, says, 'For the full-year FY2025, ICRA expects a back-ended pick-up in economic activity to boost the GDP and GVA growth to 6.8% and 6.5%, respectively. In particular, there is considerable headroom for the GoI’s capital expenditure, which needs to expand by 39% in YoY terms in July-March FY2025 to meet the Budget Estimate for the full year. This is expected to catapult GDP growth back above 7% in H2 FY2025.' Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor at State Bank of India, 'The global economic growth outlook remains uncertain but the softening inflation has made space for monetary policy easing. The indicators of corporate performance in Q1 2024-25 point to moderation in sales growth of manufacturing companies in both nominal and real terms, although excluding the petroleum sector, a better outturn emerges.' . Read on...

Livemint: India's GDP growth estimated at a five-quarter low of 6.5% in Q1FY25: Economists
Author: Ankit Gohel

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