Economy

Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 08 jul 2013

Different Indian states are applying and propagating competing models of growth and development. In some aspects they have achieved and demonstrated success but when analyzed on all factors needed for long-term and inclusive growth they are all found lacking. Moreover considering India's diversity and differences in regional developmental priorities, no one model could be replicated for all of India to provide an effective, efficient and inclusive growth and developmental model. India can create a unique model by understanding these regional successes and incorporating basic elements of these competing models in its overall development plan. Read on...

The Times of India: India will benefit from contestation between different models of growth
Author: NA

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Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 08 jul 2013

Use of licensed software brings global economic benefits. According to recent study published by INSEAD (French B-school) and BSA (Sofware Alliance), 1% rise in global licensed software usage will generate US$ 73 billion to the world economy as compared to US$ 20 billion from pirated software. There is a lot of concern in case of India where software piracy is quite high and it amounts to about US$ 2.93 billion in 2011. If India increased licensed software usage by 1%, there would be an economic benefit of US$ 1.3 billion. Read on...

Live Mint: 1% rise in licensed software can add $1.3 bn to Indian economy
Author: Pankaj Mishra

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Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 05 jul 2013

According to a financial expert there are two things that a country need for long term growth - number of workers and how productive they are (quantity and quality of its workforce). India is in the right direction of building its workforce to 140 million between 2000 to 2020. To improve India's long term economic growth and efficiency, the expert suggests ten steps - (1) Improve governance (2) Fix primary and secondary education (3) Improve quality of higher education (4) Adopt an inflation target and build macroeconomic policy faramework around it (5) Initiate a medium to long-term fiscal policy framework (6) Increase trade with neighbours (7) Liberalize financial markets (8) Innovate in agriculture (9) Build more infrastructure (10) Protect the environment. Read on...

Bloomberg: A 10-Step Program for India's Economy
Author: Jim O'Neill

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Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 04 jul 2013

In the 68th survey of NSSO (National Sample Survey Organization) released recently it was mentioned that proportion of people employed in agriculture decreased by 50%. This signifies maturing of the Indian economy (estimated GDP of US$ 1.8 trillion) and a shift of employment to other sectors like manufacturing and services. It is observed that earlier employment in agriculture was disproportionate to its contribution to GDP. Although manufacturing sector's proportion of employment and its contribution to GDP are almost identical but in case of services there is a large gap. The challenge that Indian economy faces in terms of these structural shifts in the employment patterns is that of skill shortages which are already visible. Most companies have to retrain graduates before they are absorbed in the workforce. Managing the influx of agricultural workforce into other sectors and provide proper training and skill them would be a daunting task. Read on...

Live Mint: A new focus to India's jobs debate
Author: Anil Padmanabhan

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Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 04 jun 2013

The recent quarter (Q4) data released by CSO (Central Statistical Organization) shows a marginal increase in Indian growth to 4.8% from previous Q3. The growth of overall economy for the year 2012-13 stands at a decade low of 5%. CSO suggests that the economy is bottoming out and there is a chance for gradual recovery. The community services segment has decelerated to 4% in Jan-Mar period. Investment is on a way up while consumption is decelerating. Experts say that unless the investment growth is higher then the falling consumption demand the overall impact would be negative. The government plans to lower deficit by increasing the revenue. The better monsoon will also bring upside to the economy by increasing farm output that would soften inflation. Sectors that showed positive sentiment in Q4 have been manufacturing, construction and financial services while mining, electricity and community services showed negative signs. Prime Minister suggested bringing check on inflation would assist in getting the growth policies back on track. Read on...

Live Mint: GDP growth hits decade low of 5% in 2012-2013
Author: Asit Ranjan Mishra

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Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 03 jun 2013

Indian economy is getting more integrated with the global economy and its trade with the world is increasing leading to higher flows on foreign exchange markets. In this scenario the role of exchange rate becomes important. The question arises that should RBI intervene to check the movement of the Rupee with respect to other currencies or it must be let free to find its own level? Current policy of the government is to ease capital control at various places and RBI has let the Rupee find its own level since March 2007. But if the Rupee continues to depreciate what options does the government have to stabilize its movement or considering the overall policy of the government regarding the economy does it have any option at all? Read on...

The Indian Express: Value for money
Author: NA

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Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 30 may 2013

According to an economist, government policy and jobless growth, are the two significant factors that have increased socio-economic inequality in Indian society in the post-reform period. Although India has been one of the fastest growing economy having a large service sector amounting to 60% of the GDP and 55 billionaires making to the Forbes list with the top ten having an estimated net worth equivalent to 5.5% of India's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) but on the other side are the poors whose condition has worsened and their number increased in recent times. India is ranked 73rd out of 88 countries in 2011 annual Global Hunger Index and 8 Indian states amount to 421 million poor, more than combined total of 26 poorest African nations (410 million). Poor quality of education, lack of employability skills among the educated, large populations still engaged in agriculture (50% of total), gap between service sector contribution to GDP (60%) and employment in the sector (30%), decrease in manufacturing sector employment, self employment of 60% with most individuals involved in low paying activities and less spend allocated to health and education (less than 5%) are some factors and indicators of the widening gap between the rich and poor. Read on...

Business Standard: India has a problem with inequality, and it won't be solved easily
Author: Kunal Kumar Kundu

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Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 29 may 2013

A senior chemical industry consultant suggests that India should learn from China in creating and developing technologies instead of importing them and to become an economic super power. He mentions that China is consistently strategising and working on its energy security. In a recent instance the reduction in price of solar panels was a result of dumping Polycrystalline Silicon photovoltaics in the market by China. On the other hand India doesn't have any polycrystalline silicon production facilities and is totally dependent on imports. China is also taking a lead in technologies and production of other sources of energy like methanol particularly for the automobile fuel as it is considered cheaper then gasoline. China's policy to establish chemical and industrial parks on barren lands instead of agricultural lands can be replicated for better all round economic development. Read on...

The New Indian Express: India should learn from China to become an economic superpower
Author: C. Shivakumar

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Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 17 may 2013

During the period 2001-2011, the number of Indian farmers decreased by 9 million and is currently at 118.7 million, according to a recent census. Experts say that this trend could be disastrous. The economic contribution of agriculture is about 21% of GDP but its effects are beyond this considering that 70% of India's 1.1 billion population is rural and a large portion of it is poor. As India shifts to urban based manufacturing and services economy, if proper policies are not put in place for agrarian and rural population, it would stifle India's overall growth and would further increase the urban-rural divide. According to a report there were about 17,638 farmer suicides in 2009. About 70% of Indian agriculture still depends on monsoon. Experts say that India has to take bold initiatives to evolve its overall agricultural architecture to increase productivity and stay globally competitive. To fulfill promises of food security program India has to substantially increase its annual production from current levels. Moreover education and skill enhancement programs should be implemented for rural population and long term policies should be formulated to engage rural folks in non-farm related employment. Inclusive growth is key to India's long term future as a strong and sustainable economy. Read on...

Hindustan Times: Skills don't match jobs in India's new work profile
Author: Gaurav Choudhury

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Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 14 apr 2013

India has to overcome its vicious cycle and start attracting foreign investments to avoid economic imbalances and weakening currency, says an expert. Healthy increase in consumption is a result of investment driven increase in production capacity and job creation. Thus for a long term sustainable economy India should create investment condusive environment with responsible administrative measures and reforms. Read on...

Reuters: Investment boost needed to break India's vicious cycle
Author: Hartmut Issel

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